Pressure on demand drags down the textile and apparel industry, which may recover in 2023
A recent survey in Jiangsu revealed that the textile and apparel industry will perform poorly in 2022 due to weak demand, but foreign trade is slightly better than domestic sales. With the introduction of national policies to expand domestic demand, the textile and apparel industry is expected to pick up in 2023.
Foreign trade is high at first and then low. Domestic sales are “good at both ends but bad in the middle”
In terms of foreign trade, although the epidemic affected the stability of the supply chain in the first half of 2022, the government, chambers of commerce, and enterprises responded quickly, especially at the government level, and adjusted relevant policies in a timely manner to open green channels for key industries including textiles and clothing to ensure Export orders are delivered on time.
“Jiangsu’s textile and apparel foreign trade is not very different from last year. Although it began to decline in October 2022, due to the rapid growth in June, it directly flattened the full-year data.” Lu, Secretary-General of the Jiangsu Federation of Industry and Commerce Textile and Garment Chamber of Commerce May said. In November 2022, my country’s textile exports fell by 14.8% year-on-year, and clothing exports fell by 14.7% year-on-year. The decline further expanded from October, and external demand pressure still exists.
In terms of domestic sales, the performance of the textile and apparel industry in 2022 is “not very good”, and presents a situation of “better at both ends and worse in the middle”, that is, the market performance of mid-to-high-end and mass-low-end textile and apparel products is better, while “The sandwich layer between the two ends is the most bitter.”
Ding Jian, chairman of Nantong Tianzhu Textile Co., Ltd., said that because the company mainly produces relatively high-end textile products such as modal and yarn-dyed fabrics, and has obtained certifications from many large European and American companies, it has maintained a strong competitive advantage.
The relevant person in charge of Sumida, a leading foreign trade company in Jiangsu, also said that orders for domestic clothing brands have dropped significantly, and consumption is currently declining overall. Cheaper clothing sells better. For example, Wal-Mart’s related clothing orders are increasing, which is in line with the current situation. of.
Data show that in November 2022, my country’s total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles was 127.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%, and the decline expanded by 8.1 percentage points from October.
In 2023, terminal demand will be strong internally and weak externally, and the overall weak recovery will be the main trend
Many industry insiders said that pressure on internal and external demand is an important factor in the overall poor performance of the textile and apparel industry in 2022. On the one hand, major economies are facing inflation risks, and many markets such as the United States are still clearing inventories, resulting in weak foreign demand for textiles and apparel. Lu Mei revealed that Japan is an important market for my country’s textile and clothing exports. At its peak, about 80% of Japan’s textile and clothing products were imported from China, but now only about 40% are imported. “Textile and apparel companies that specialize in the Japanese market will be greatly affected.”
It is understood that some textile and garment companies in Jiangsu that engage in foreign trade have begun to actively receive domestic orders due to a large shrinkage in orders. On the other hand, due to the impact of the epidemic, residents have reduced travel and consumption scenarios are restricted, resulting in poor demand for clothing. “Due to the reduction in interactive communication and social occasions, consumer demand for clothing and fabrics has decreased.” Lu Mei said.
As epidemic prevention and control policies continue to be optimized, companies from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places have organized groups to go abroad to grab orders. The State Council recently issued the “Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035)”, which proposed that expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are important directions for stabilizing economic growth. These will inject confidence into the development of the industry in 2023.
Xu Pengcheng, the relevant person in charge of Jiangsu Haiqi International Co., Ltd., recently went to Tokyo, Japan to participate in the Asian Fashion Fair (AFF). “This is the first time to participate in the exhibition in three years. With so many apparel companies participating in the exhibition, Japanese guests are also quite happy.” He said that Japan is an important overseas market for the company, and it will also participate in multiple exhibitions held in Osaka and other places in 2023.
The Guotai Junan Research Report believes that with the continued optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and the promotion of national policies to expand domestic demand, clothing retail data is expected to gradually improve. Lu Mei and many other interviewees said that in the future, textile and clothing companies must change their concepts and develop into new models and new business formats such as cross-border e-commerce, and at the same time focus on building their own Brand, promote the industry to upgrade to mid-to-high-end.
Judging from the situation of the terminal textile industry, the demand of the terminal textile industry in 2022 will be affected by the domestic epidemic, declining real estate demand, and high raw material prices. Superimposed on the decline in demand caused by overseas inflationary pressure, the overall internal and external demand level of terminal textile and apparel will be biased. weak. From the perspective of 2023, although most countries around the world have relaxed the epidemic, judging from the experience of overseas countries that have earlier liberalized, there has been no significant improvement in terminal demand amid the downward pressure on overseas economies and the decline in residents’ income. Therefore, the recovery of domestic epidemic prevention and control is still cautious. In terms of domestic demand, domestic demand will be significantly dragged down by the epidemic and weak real estate in 2022. In 2023, with the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control and the country’s risk support for real estate, domestic demand is expected to recover month-on-month, but the room for recovery is still limited by the past. During the two-year epidemic, the impact of income decline and possible recurrence of positive cases; in terms of external demand, despite the slowdown in interest rate hikes in the United States, inflationary pressure in the United States continues, and interest rate hike expectations in Europe and other countries and other macroeconomic factors still have a negative impact on demand. In addition, overseas With high finished product inventories, inventory replenishment is expected to slow down, so…��There will still be continued downward pressure on terminal textile and apparel exports in 2023.
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