When can foreign trade stop its downward trend?
The General Administration of Customs released foreign trade data on the 10th. In April, the import and export growth rate fell to 2.7%. Except for the negative foreign trade growth in January this year due to the Spring Festival factors, this is the monthly growth rate of my country’s foreign trade since January 2010. The lowest value of speed.
Faced with the unfavorable environment of insufficient momentum for global economic recovery, increasing uncertainty in external demand, and high domestic manufacturing costs, what will be the trend of foreign trade in the next stage and even throughout the year? How to strive to achieve expected growth goals?
Why does the export growth rate continue to decline?
Although the orders on hand in the past few months have been good, Zhang Chunjun, manager of the Guangdong Foreign Trade Development Company, still feels “uneasy” because the international market is unpredictable and the company’s full-year export performance is still “unclear”.
Zhang Chunjun’s concerns are the epitome of many current Chinese foreign trade companies.
At the just-concluded 111th Canton Fair, the cumulative export turnover was US$36.03 billion, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous session. This is a relatively rare situation in the Canton Fair where the turnover has dropped significantly.
Zhang Lixin, general manager of Jiangsu Oriental Dawn International Trading Co., Ltd., which mainly exports garlic and other agricultural products, clearly feels that because of worries about the future prospects of the global economy, most foreign merchants are more cautious this year and are unwilling to sign large or long-term orders.
Customs data shows that in the first four months of this year, my country’s total import and export value was US$1.16718 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, which continued to fall from the first quarter. Among them, exports were US$593.24 billion, an increase of 6.9%; imports were US$573.94 billion, an increase of 5.1%.
Zheng Yuesheng, director of the Statistics Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that the current overall sluggishness of the international market is the biggest factor affecting my country’s foreign trade exports. The EU’s economy is in a sluggish state, and my country’s exports to Europe have seen minimal growth; while the U.S. economy has recovered, and my country’s exports to the United States have performed relatively well.
Statistics show that in the first four months, the total bilateral trade value between my country and the EU was US$170.53 billion, a growth of only 0.3%. During the same period, the total bilateral trade value with the United States was US$146.1 billion, an increase of 9.2%.
According to Shen Danyang, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, in addition to the continued sluggish external demand, the superposition of multiple factors such as rising domestic costs and increasing international trade frictions is also the reason for the relatively slow growth of my country’s foreign trade in recent times.
Can stabilization at the low level in the second quarter be achieved?
In fact, since the fourth quarter of last year, my country’s foreign trade import and export has experienced a certain degree of decline. Can the late decline be stopped?
Zhang Hanlin, dean of the China WTO Research Institute at the University of International Business and Economics, believes that although insufficient external demand will still be the biggest obstacle to my country’s exports, there are certain favorable conditions for maintaining stable development of foreign trade. As the economies of some developed countries recovered, in mid-April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecast for the first time in more than a year. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 1 showed that the new export orders index, one of the sub-indexes of my country’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), rose slightly from the previous month and remained above the critical point for three consecutive months.
Zhang Hanlin said that from a domestic perspective, the labor shortage and labor difficulties that plagued foreign trade companies were particularly prominent in March, April and early May this year. However, with the change of jobs and adjustments in place in May, the production of enterprises will be restored. and improve, foreign trade exports will also improve.
During recent interviews in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, reporters also found that despite facing “an even more severe environment than when the international financial crisis broke out in 2008,” many foreign trade companies have improved production efficiency, opened up diversified markets, and enriched their products. Measures such as variety have improved the international competitiveness of enterprises.
Private enterprise Zhejiang Ningbo Beifa Group’s sales of orders on hand increased by 48% year-on-year from January to March, and the annual growth is expected to be 45%. When analyzing the reasons for the substantial growth, Qiu Zhiming, chairman of Beifa Group, said that firstly, they have opened up distribution channels in more than 170 countries and regions around the world; secondly, the company has transformed from a simple stationery manufacturing company to one integrating creative design, distribution logistics, manufacturing and research and development. Transformation of stationery supply chain operation service provider.
Qiu Zhiming gave the example of their transformation from a paper and pen supplier to Wal-Mart into a comprehensive supplier of stationery. The orders from this one buyer alone increased by more than 40% throughout the year, reaching nearly 30 million US dollars.
Taking into account multiple factors at home and abroad, the Ministry of Commerce recently released the “Report on China’s Foreign Trade Situation (Spring 2012)”, which judged that my country’s foreign trade growth rate will be “low and stable” in the second quarter, and the annual growth rate will be lower than that in 2011. There has been a slight decline in the year, but overall growth will remain stable.
How to achieve 10% annual foreign trade growth?
With external demand declining and domestic costs rising, how can my country’s foreign trade strive to achieve the expected growth target of 10%? Li Jian, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, believes that both enterprises and the government should make a difference.
“Rapid changes are the normal state of the international market. The past ‘Made in China’ growth style, where profits are guaranteed as long as you concentrate on the orders in hand, will gradually become a thing of the past. “Li Jian said that enterprises must learn and get used to keeping up with the pulse of the international market.
In this regard, Zhejiang Tapson Group, which operates leisure products, has a deep understanding of this. The company’s sales growth this year has slowed down compared to last year, but it is still expected toAchieve a growth of about 15%. “This comes from the fact that since 2006, we have consciously carried out overseas layout, bypassing middlemen and directly contacting large overseas retailers to enrich and expand our product lines.” said Lai Xiaoxuan, deputy general manager of Tapson.
Lai Xiaoxuan said: “The rising costs are a reality, which also shows that the original extensive approach will definitely not work. Enterprises must ‘resonate with the same frequency’ as the market during the painful transformation.”
Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Shen Danyang listed a series of measures taken by the country to stabilize exports: stabilizing export tax rebates, export credit insurance, trade financing and other policies, and increasing support; guiding enterprises to deeply explore emerging markets and cultivate independent brands, Guide processing trade to extend to the high end of the industrial chain and move to the central and western regions; strengthen services for key industries and enterprises.
Shen Danyang said: “Currently, the Ministry of Commerce and commercial departments at all levels are taking active actions. I believe that as the situation develops and the work deepens, the foreign trade situation will further improve in the second quarter, and our established foreign trade goals for the whole year should be achieved. Realize.”
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