Since February 6, 2013, the Ministry of Commerce of China has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imported pulp originating from the United States, Canada and Brazil. The dumping investigation period determined in this investigation is from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012, and the industrial damage investigation period is from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2012.
The news of anti-dumping of dissolving pulp has been heard in the industry as early as the first half of 2012. At that time, there was still a dispute between cotton pulp and domestic dissolving pulp manufacturers. Looking back now, we can see the clues when we look back at the manuscripts at that time, such as “A large amount of dissolving wood pulp pours into China, harming the interests of cotton farmers” and “A large amount of dissolving wood pulp imports bring huge damage to the domestic dissolving wood pulp industry”.
In the later period, the Dissolving Pulp Industry Association was established, and the dissolving pulp anti-dumping initiator purchased large amounts of dissolving pulp. Some domestic dissolving pulp manufacturers and cotton pulp manufacturers held meetings in Beijing. Although importers and viscose manufacturers have heard about it, most people did not expect that the anti-dumping investigation of imported pulp would finally be launched.
Viscose factory profits have been swallowed up for a long time
The production capacity of viscose staple fiber has expanded rapidly since 2009, and the issue of pulp supply has become a hot topic in the industry. After three years of adjustments, today’s structure has been formed. From 2009 to 2011, the profits of viscose manufacturers were swallowed up by the pulp industry for a long time, and news of pulp orders being canceled and over-reported were heard from time to time. In 2011, the entire industry suffered deep losses, the giant viscose staple fiber industry was exposed to restructuring, and the listed companies were deeply involved in the crisis of abnormal financial status (ST). Until the end of 2012, many listed companies escaped the fate of being “ST” by relying on local government financial subsidies.
From 2010 to 2011, the dissolving pulp industry was highly profitable, and investors at home and abroad paid great attention to it. Starting from October 2011, new dissolving pulp production capacity, mainly Hunan Juntai, Sun Paper, and Qingshan Paper, have been put into operation. The characteristics of these pulp mills are that they all started from the papermaking industry. The dissolving pulp production technology is still in its infancy, and there is still room for development in terms of supply volume, product quality or cost advantages.
The demand for dissolving pulp has grown in the past decade
From the perspective of global demand, the world’s demand for dissolving pulp resumed growth in 2010, reaching 4.5 million tons before the crisis in 1990. Previously, the demand for dissolving pulp was high in 1975, reaching 5.3 million tons. In the following nearly 30 years, the demand continued to decline. By the early 1990s, with the drastic social changes in Eastern Europe, the demand shrank sharply. In 2000, the demand was 3.2 million tons, the lowest level. level, and from 2000 to 2010, demand showed a rapid upward trend.
Global demand for dissolving pulp in the past 30 years
Most of the dissolving pulp is used to produce viscose fiber, but also acetate fiber and filters used in the tobacco industry; microcrystalline cellulose used in the pharmaceutical and food industries; nitrocellulose, cellophane, etc. used in coatings and explosives. The production of cellulose acetate uses about 65,000 tons of pulp every year, all of which relies on imports; the production of cellophane uses less than 50,000 tons of pulp every year. The two together only account for about 11% of the total dissolving pulp usage, and changes in their usage have little impact on the market. Most of the world’s dissolving pulp is used to make viscose fiber, accounting for 85% of the dissolving pulp consumption.
Global viscose fiber production is mostly concentrated in Asian countries. China is the largest consumer of dissolving pulp in the world. If the import of dissolving pulp to China is hindered in the future, it will be difficult for foreign dissolving pulp mills to transfer this part of the demand to other countries or other fields.
The amount of imported dissolving slurry is increasing year by year
China is the main consumer of dissolving pulp in the world, but the United States, Canada, Brazil and other countries have geographical advantages and have sufficient low-priced wood chips. Domestic pulp mills need to rely on imported wood chips. At present, the average price difference between domestic and foreign costs is estimated to be 1,500 to 2,000 yuan/ton.
According to the FAO report “The Current Situation of the World’s Forests in 2011”, China’s wood chip resources are relatively scarce, and wood chips are mostly dependent on Europe, Indonesia, Laos, and South Africa. No matter what the final outcome is after the anti-dumping incident on dissolving pulp, domestic dissolving pulp mills will also be wary of countries such as Europe, Indonesia, Laos and South Africa waiting for opportunities to raise wood chip prices.
In recent years, the import volume of dissolving pulp has increased year by year. After the centralized production of domestic dissolving pulp, the production capacity increased significantly in 2012. Pulp production has been concentrated and price competition has become more prominent. Since 2011, the price of dissolving pulp has fallen sharply. In 2012, cotton pulp was under cost pressure, and it was common for equipment to be converted to refined cotton production. Domestic dissolving pulp was forced to stop. Fujian Nanzhi’s original planned 96,000-ton dissolving pulp project and Chenming Paper’s 600,000-ton dissolving pulp project were mostly shelved or cancelled.
The start-up of new foreign equipment may be delayed
In 2013, it is expected that the domestic and foreign dissolving pulp production is expected to increase by 1 million to 1.5 million tons. In 2015, global dissolving pulp production capacity will reach nearly 10 million tons. With the investigation and filing of imported dissolving pulp, some new foreign dissolving pulp projects planned or under construction are more likely to be shelved or delayed. The first ones to bear the brunt are the 330,000-ton project planned by SAPPI in the U.S. factory in September 2013, and the 240,000-ton project completed by Fortress in Canada in the third quarter of 2013.
This anti-dumping started on February 6, 2013, and usually should beThe investigation shall be concluded before February 6, 2014, and may be extended to August 6, 2014 under special circumstances. A preliminary ruling will be issued within six months.
If anti-dumping is passed later, anti-dumping measures may be taken, including temporary anti-dumping measures (temporary taxes, cash deposits, letters of guarantee, etc.), anti-dumping duties and price commitments.
In 2012, the United States, Canada, and Brazil accounted for 58% of the total imports of dissolving pulp, playing a decisive role in China’s pulp structure. During the investigation, their supply is bound to be affected to a certain extent. Dissolving pulp companies in the United States, Canada, and Brazil may limit production, while domestic viscose raw materials may suffer from supply shortages and high prices. Considering the relative scarcity of wood chip resources in my country, the import volume of dissolving pulp has increased year by year in recent years, and the reliance on foreign dissolving pulp has increased. If the anti-dumping is passed, the domestic pulp structure may be set back by 3 to 5 years.
Event link
On December 13, 2012, the Ministry of Commerce received an application for anti-dumping investigation formally submitted by representatives of Yibin Changyi Pulp Co., Ltd., Yanbian Shixian Bailu Paper Co., Ltd. and other applicants. The applicant requested that products originating in the United States, Canada and Brazil be investigated. Imported pulp is subject to anti-dumping investigation.
Since February 2, 2013, Chinese consulates in the United States, Brazil, and Canada have received relevant documents one after another.
On February 6, 2013, the Ministry of Commerce website announced that an anti-dumping investigation into imported pulp originating from the United States, Canada and Brazil was launched.
On February 18, 2013, the China Chemical Fiber Association convened mainstream viscose staple fiber manufacturers, listened to the opinions of each manufacturer as a related party in the incident, and summarized them to the Ministry of Commerce
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