Overview of the national textile and apparel trade in the first half of the country

In June 2016, the total import and export value of national trade in goods was US$312.66 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. Among them, exports were US$180.38 billion, down 4.8%; imports were US$132.28 billion, down 8.4%. The trade surplus for the month was US$48.11 billion. From January to June, the total import and export value was US$1.71267 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. Among them, exports were US$985.48 billion, down 7.7%; imports were US$727.19 billion, down 10.2%, with a cumulative trade surplus of US$258.29 billion.

In June, the textile and apparel trade volume was US$25.97 billion, down 5.8%, of which exports were US$24.01 billion, down 5.3%, and imports were US$1.95 billion, down 11.6%. The trade surplus for the month was US$22.06 billion, down 4.7%. From January to June, the textile and apparel trade volume was US$136.14 billion, down 3.4%, of which exports were US$125.03 billion, down 2.6%, and imports were US$11.11 billion, down 11.5%. The cumulative trade surplus was US$113.92 billion, down 1.7%.

1. Exports showed a stabilizing trend, while imports showed an obvious downward trend.

Since the beginning of this year, textile and apparel exports are still facing a complex and severe situation: the economic recovery of major global economies is slow and external demand growth is weak; exchange rates fluctuate frequently, and the depreciation of the RMB against non-US dollar currencies such as the euro has affected export growth to a certain extent; global The political and economic landscape has changed, and unfavorable factors such as Brexit and terrorist attacks have appeared frequently. At the same time, the role of domestic policies in promoting foreign trade and stabilizing exports has begun to appear. Measures such as promoting the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, increasing financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, and improving trade facilitation have been gradually implemented and implemented; the enthusiasm and creativity within enterprises are increasing day by day, jointly promoting the above Exports stabilized in the first half of the year. From the second half of 2015 to the first half of 2016, the decline in China’s textile and apparel exports gradually narrowed in each quarter. In the second quarter of 2016, it dropped only 0.3%, which was 5 percentage points narrower than the first quarter and nearly 7 percentage points narrower than the second quarter of 2015.

Imports showed a clear downward trend. The first and second quarters fell by 12% and 11% respectively, and there was no growth in the six months of the first half of the year.

Judging from the current situation, since the economy of major markets has not improved significantly, the external demand environment will not change substantially in the second half of the year. The domestic economy is still operating stably, but emergencies such as floods affecting several northern and southern provinces will have a negative impact on exports in the short term. Generally speaking, due to the low base in the same period last year, it is initially expected that exports will maintain a stable trend in the second half of this year, and exports throughout the year will be the same as last year or achieve slight growth.

2. The proportion of general trade further expanded, and the exports of private enterprises maintained growth.

General trade has developed rapidly in recent years. In the first half of the year, general trade accounted for 78.2% of exports, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from 2015. Export volume dropped slightly by 0.6% year-on-year and was basically the same. Processing trade and border small-amount trade fell rapidly, down 16.9% and 18.8% respectively. Other trade methods based on market procurement continued the growth momentum last year, with a cumulative increase of 27%.

Private enterprises have provided a positive boost to exports. In the first half of the year, cumulative exports increased by 1.1%, while state-owned enterprises decreased by 6.5%, and foreign-funded enterprises decreased by 11.1%.

3. The performance of each major market is different, with mixed results.

European Union—The decline in exports to the EU has slowed, and the impact of Brexit is still uncertain.

Since the beginning of this year, the decline in China’s exports to the EU has slowed down, and there were three consecutive months of growth from March to May. In the first half of the year, the cumulative exports to the EU were US$22.71 billion, a decrease of 4.4%, which was smaller than that of the United States and Japan. Among them, textiles increased by 3.8% and clothing decreased by 7.2%. The export volume of needle-woven garments fell by 0.5%, and the average export unit price fell by 7.3%.

The UK is China’s largest trading partner of textiles and apparel in the EU, accounting for 4% of China’s export market. The UK market has maintained a relatively stable pattern for a long time. In the first half of the year, China’s exports to the UK were US$5.41 billion, an increase of 1.6%. %. Brexit, affected by severe turmoil in the financial market and falling exchange rates, will have a negative impact on China’s exports in the short term, and exports may decline. However, in the long run, since there will be a two-year transition period for formal Brexit, during which both China and the UK will have time to adjust their foreign trade policies and use the positive factors brought about by Brexit to create business opportunities, the long-term impact of Brexit may not be negative.

United States—Exports to the United States declined, and apparel exports declined.

The U.S. market, which had been stable in the early stage, has also declined. However, the export volume in a single month has increased month by month. The fundamentals of exports to the United States are still good. Once the market stabilizes, exports to the United States will still resume growth.

Exports to the United States in June were US$4.16 billion, down 11.6%. From January to June, cumulative exports to the United States were US$20.11 billion, down 5%, of which textiles fell by 6.6% and clothing fell by 4.3%. The export volume of key commodities, needle-woven garments, fell by 2.3%, and the average export unit price fell by 0.6%.

ASEAN – Exports to ASEAN declined slightly, with the Philippines replacing Vietnam as a new growth point.

From January to June, China’s cumulative exports to ASEAN were US$16.68 billion, down 1.4%, of which textiles increased by 6%. Major categories of commodities, yarns, fabrics and finished products, all resumed growth, with increases of 3.1% and 7.9% respectively. and 1.4%. Clothing fell by 16.6%, of which the export volume of needle-woven clothing fell by 4.4%, and the average export unit price fell by 13.9%.

The country’s export growth to ASEAN has changed.�Exports to Vietnam, which had experienced rapid growth in the early period, fell back, down 9%, while the Philippines suddenly emerged, with exports to it increasing by as much as 66.2%, of which fabrics doubled and clothing increased by 57%.

Japan – Exports to Japan continued to decline month-on-month, and the market share in Japan further shrunk.

The sluggish Japanese market and industrial relocation have caused China’s exports to Japan to continue to decline. In June, the export volume fell for the third consecutive month. In the first half of the year, total exports to Japan were US$9.25 billion, down 5.1%. Japan’s share of the Chinese market dropped to 7.4%. According to Japanese customs statistics, from January to May, China’s market share in Japan further fell to 61.5%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the same period last year.

The total export volume of needle-woven garments, the main commodity, dropped by 1.7%, and the average export unit price dropped by 4.5%.

Exports to Hong Kong performed abnormally, and exports to “Belt and Road” countries achieved overall growth.

Exports to Hong Kong are growing rapidly again. While overall trade declined, exports to Hong Kong rose instead of falling. Different from the rapid shrinkage of trade volume in the previous two years, exports to Hong Kong in the first half of the year reached US$7.28 billion, an increase of 15.1%. The growth mainly came from Fujian, Guangdong, Chongqing and other places. Among them, Fujian’s exports increased by as high as 177%.

Driven by national policies, the “Belt and Road” countries are gradually becoming new hotspots for foreign trade. In the first half of the year, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing to the “Belt and Road” countries were US$42.7 billion, accounting for 34.2% of total exports, achieving 5% year-on-year. % growth, and the countries with faster growth are concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe, West Asia and North Africa, ASEAN, and former Soviet countries such as Ukraine and Belarus.

Fourth, clothing exports have slowed down faster, and the proportion of textile exports has increased.

In the first half of the year, clothing exports declined faster than textiles, with declines of 3.8% and 0.9% respectively. The total export volume of medium-needle woven clothing only fell by 0.6%, and the average export unit price fell by 3.7%. The proportion of textiles in total exports has increased rapidly in recent years, reaching 42% in the first half of the year, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from last year and an increase of 4.4 percentage points from 2014. Among them, fabrics and finished products have grown rapidly. The proportions of the two increased by 2.8 and 1.1 percentage points respectively compared with 2014. Exports of yarn and finished products decreased by 1.9% and 2.4% respectively, while fabrics increased slightly by 0.5%.

5. Exports in the eastern region were relatively stable, with Guangdong, Fujian and Shandong achieving export growth.

In the first half of the year, more than half of the provinces (cities, districts) across the country experienced a decline in exports. The situation in the eastern region was relatively stable, with a decrease of only 0.7%, the central region decreased by 6.5%, and the western region declined the fastest, with a decrease of 19.2%. Among key provinces and regions, exports from Zhejiang and Jiangsu fell by 3.1% and 0.2% respectively. Guangdong used tourism trade to achieve a growth of 1.4%, of which tourism trade accounted for close to 20%. The growth of Fujian and Shandong was driven by exports to ASEAN, Hong Kong and South Korea respectively.

6. Textile imports decreased, while clothing imports increased.

The 11.6% drop in imports in June expanded the cumulative import drop in the first half of the year to double digits again, which was mainly dragged down by the 16.2% drop in textiles, while clothing achieved a slight growth of 4.3%. The yarns, fabrics and finished products in textiles all declined, and the decline gradually narrowed with the degree of processing of the products, to 23%, 12.4% and 6.2% respectively. The import volume and price of cotton yarn in yarn dropped by 19% and 9.5% respectively. ; The total import volume of clothing knitted and woven clothing increased by 8.8%, and the import unit price decreased by 2.7%.

7. Cotton imports fell rapidly, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton expanded.

Affected by factors such as changes in market supply and demand, expansion of cotton yarn imports, slowdown in downstream demand, and domestic cotton policy reforms, cotton imports have experienced a sustained decline since 2013. As of the first half of 2016, the cumulative cotton import volume was less than 500,000 tons, only 431,000 tons, which was nearly 90% less than the peak import period in 2012, and the year-on-year decrease was as high as 54%. The average import unit price fell by 2.4%.

In June, 73,000 tons of cotton were imported, a decrease of 55%, and the import unit price dropped by 5.3%.

Since June, there have been enthusiastic auctions for the cotton reserves. However, companies have reported that the storage speed has been slow. At the same time, the spot stock continues to decrease, high-grade cotton resources have tightened, and domestic spot prices have continued to rise. The monthly average price of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex3128B) was 12,694 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 183 yuan/ton, or 1.46%; it was a year-on-year decrease of 621 yuan/ton, or 4.66%. At the end of the month, it was 13,075 yuan/ton, an increase of 462 yuan/ton from the end of last month.

Although international cotton prices continued to rise in June, the increase was smaller than domestic prices, and the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton continued to expand slightly. The monthly average price of China’s imported cotton price index FCIndexM was 73.96 cents/pound, an increase of 3.00 cents from the previous month. At the end of the month, June 30, it was 75.00 cents/pound, up 1.80 cents from the end of May. The 1% tariff discount was RMB 12,507/ton, which was lower than the Chinese cotton price index of 568 yuan/ton in the same period, and the price difference widened compared with the same period last month. 49 yuan. Overview of national textile and apparel trade in the first half of 2016

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