Imported yarn oscillates at high levels, Indian yarn continues to rise

According to the survey, with the deep decline in Zhengzhou stock prices, the “double drop” in transaction prices and transaction rates on the day of the State Reserve cotton auction, and the rising phenomenon of “prices but no market” for domestic cotton spot prices, the quotations of medium and high-count cotton yarns took the lead in “supporting “Can’t Live” has been lowered by 300-500 yuan/ton (some textile companies in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places were forced to “turn around” after raising yarn prices for only one week). At present, except for C21S and OE yarns, the quotations and shipments on the market are relatively In addition to being stable, other yarn counts are showing signs of fatigue. Some textile companies said that based on the raw material stocking period of 10-20 days, the cost of cotton yarn currently sold is above the state reserve cotton transaction price of 15,000 yuan/ton, and textile companies are unwilling to reduce prices and sell goods. However, if the transaction prices of Zhengzhou and State Reserve cotton rounds in the first and middle of August do not rebound effectively, cotton yarn prices may experience a sharp correction. In obvious contrast to the “up and down” of domestic cotton yarn, imported yarn from India, Pakistan, Vietnam and other countries still maintains a high level of oscillation, with a strong momentum of “shooting without turning back”, especially Indian cotton yarn and Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, etc. The price difference between origin yarns is getting wider and wider.

Judging from the survey, the current quotations of imported yarn by port traders are generally lower than the CNF and CIF quotations of yarn mills in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan by US$0.05-0.10/kg. On the one hand, traders ordered yarns from India and Pakistan at lower prices in May and June, and current sales profits are higher; on the other hand, bonded yarn shipments are currently slow, and traders are eager to cash in and recover their payments. On August 7th and 8th, the quotations of OEC10S, C21S, C32S, and JC32S major brand A+ Indian yarns in China’s main ports were US$1.55-1.58/kg, US$2.66-2.70/kg, US$2.83-2.86/kg, and US$3.0-3.03/kg respectively. Kilogram (CNF), it rose again by US$0.02/kg from last week. C21S and C32S were US$0.08-0.10/kg higher than Pakistani yarn. C21S-40S produced in India was almost the same as Uzbekistan yarn.

Some traders and institutions believe that the main factors for the continued rise in Indian yarn include: 1. Although the ex-factory price of cotton such as S-6 and J-34 in India has dropped by 4-5 cents/pound from the previous high, this In the past two days, S-6 once again reached the 90 cents/pound mark, and the “sell up, not sell down” mentality of the spinning mills was prominent; 2. As a large number of Indian spinning mills increased the production of blended yarns or reduced or suspended production, the cotton yarn The supply volume has declined sharply, domestic sales and export orders are under pressure, and the rise in yarn prices does not lack customers in the short term; 3. Since late July, due to rising expectations for a rebound in U.S. non-agricultural data and better ADP employment data, the Indian rupee has continued to hold steady against the U.S. dollar. Weakened, the decline expanded, and the export prices of Indian cotton, cotton yarn, gray fabrics, clothing, etc. in US dollars rose passively; from June to July, the inventories of pure cotton yarn and blended yarn in Indian yarn mills were generally small, and raw materials occupied insufficient funds. It is highlighted that the yarn mills are in a strong mood to support the price.

The “contrary” trends in cotton yarn at home and abroad have caused cotton yarn traders to be “tangled” on whether and when to replenish the goods. On the one hand, the current prices of C21S and C32SA+ imported from India, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan are the same as or even “higher” than those of domestic yarns. “Upside down” 500-600 yuan/ton. If the price of domestic yarn drops again, some cloth mills and middlemen who purchase imported yarn will “turn”. If you order imported yarn with a shipping date of August/September, there is a risk of being “trapped” On the other hand, new Indian cotton will not be available until November or December in 2016/17. There is very little US cotton and Australian cotton available for purchase before November. Therefore, the Indian cotton supply gap cannot be solved “overnight”. The proportion of enterprises changing production, reducing production or suspending production will become larger and larger. The number of cotton yarn exporters and yarn mills willing to take export orders is also declining. It is difficult to purchase cotton yarn without placing orders 1-2 months in advance; coupled with feedback from all parties Judging from the situation, there is little hope for China’s state reserve cotton rotation policy to be adjusted again. Even if the rotation volume is increased by more than 600,000 tons, cotton supply is expected to be tight before a large amount of new cotton is launched in late October. Domestic cotton prices may be affected by funds and traders. With the participation of investors, it is possible that cotton yarn will rise again, and cotton yarn will set off a new round of rise, so it is important to consider whether to replenish the stock at this time. Imported yarn oscillates at high levels, Indian yarn continues to rise

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