High new cotton prices hit, and the textile industry is waiting for rice to be cooked. The peak season is not prosperous
” The cotton cloth market does not support the rise in cotton prices, and production costs are upside down.” “This year’s peak season is not prosperous, and the market is mostly waiting and watching.” Faced with the market environment where cotton prices continue to rise this year, many people in the fabric industry told reporters this.
Some people in the industry said that at present, companies mostly rely on stockpiling cotton for production, and those without inventory have to stop production and wait and see. Taking Henan, the province with the second largest spinning yarn output in the country, as an example, the operating capacity during the golden autumn peak season may be only half. Analysts believe that the high price of new cotton is related to the sharp shrinkage of cotton planting area this year. It is estimated that this situation will be alleviated next year.
New cotton price exceeds 16,000 yuan/ton
September On the 30th, the sell-off of state cotton reserves ended, and new cotton became an important source of continuous production for fabric companies. As cotton futures prices continue to remain high and state-owned cotton reserves are frequently snapped up, high prices for new cotton in Xinjiang are hitting the market.
“During the National Day holiday, cotton prices in Xinjiang skyrocketed, driving the entire cotton market to follow suit. Today, the quotation of hand-picked lint cotton in Xinjiang has exceeded 16,000 yuan/ton, and the quotation of machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang has also reached 1.55 10,000 yuan/ton.” Li Jifeng, secretary-general of the Henan Fabric Industry Association, revealed that after the replacement of new and old cotton, the cotton cost of fabric companies has increased significantly by more than 2,000 yuan/ton compared with August. Although traders still have stocks of cotton from the state reserve, the price has soared to 15,800 yuan/ton. At present, upstream cotton prices are rising and downstream demand is sluggish. Cotton yarn companies are caught in the middle and are facing huge production pressure.
There are monitoring data statistics. As of October 9, the purchase price of seed cotton in southern Xinjiang is about 7.6 yuan/kg. In Kuqa, Yuli and other places in Aksu, the high purchase price reaches 8 yuan. /Kilogram. Driven by cotton prices in Xinjiang, during the National Day, the price of seed cotton in the Yellow River Basin also reached 7.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from before the holiday.
In the futures market, the main contract of Zheng cotton, CF1701, was as high as 15,700 yuan/ton on October 12, compared with about 12,000 yuan/ton in the same period last year, an increase of more than 30%.
“The cotton planting area has shrunk significantly this year. In addition, factors such as the end of the reserve cotton rotation and the recent rapid rise of Zheng cotton futures have all led to the recent sharp rise in cotton prices.” Zhuochuang Cotton Analyst Zheng Bo He said that when new cotton came on the market in large quantities in early October last year, cotton prices were at a low level. After the beginning of this year, cotton prices began to rise sharply. Therefore, cotton farmers have a reluctance to sell at a high price if they sell late and lose money if they sell early, and have high psychological expectations for cotton prices. In addition, despite the extension of the sell-off period this year, the transaction rate of reserve cotton rotation at the end of September continued to be as high as 100%, which shows that textile companies and traders are also generally worried about the cotton supply in the future.
It is understood that southern Xinjiang has been rainy and windy this year, and the Korla region of Xinjiang has recently suffered hail disasters, which has affected the growth of cotton. The launch of machine-picked cotton and hand-picked cotton has been delayed by 7 to 7 times compared with previous years. 10 days. After the end of the cotton reserve, there was a short “empty window” in the market supply of cotton. The National Meteorological Center recently predicted that this year’s total cotton output will be 5.096 million tons, a decrease of 9.1%.
Statistics from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System show that on October 10, the US cotton price was 13,549 yuan/ton, and the Australian cotton price was slightly higher, only 14,179 yuan/ton, which is lower than the domestic cotton spot price. Nearly 2,000 yuan/ton.
”This year’s foreign cotton production has been bumper, and prices have fallen. If this internal and external price difference continues, imported yarn is bound to have an impact on my country’s cotton yarn market.”Li Jifeng believes that most textile companies are currently afraid of buying cotton at high prices and are waiting for prices to fall.
The cotton textile industry is not prosperous in the peak season
Golden Nine and Silver Ten, the climate turns cooler, which is the season when cotton textile enterprises are booming and production and sales are booming. However, this autumn with high cotton prices, Huapeng, Xiayi County, Henan Zhu Minfeng, the head of Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., is not optimistic about the market.
“Currently, the Xinye area in Nanyang, Henan is the hardest hit area, and the operating rate may only be about 20%. In Xiayi County, Shangqiu, the general operating rate of fabric companies is only 50%. “Zhu Minfeng said that his fabric factory is one of the few enterprises in the surrounding area that operates at full capacity. What supports its production is the “reserve grain” he stored in the warehouse when cotton prices were still low.
“With the current cotton price, fabric companies are simply unprofitable, and the costs are even upside down. Who dares to buy cotton for production? “The person in charge of a textile enterprise revealed that if the current price of Xinjiang cotton is 16,000 yuan/ton, plus the loss rate, electricity and labor costs are 5,800 yuan/ton, the cost of producing one ton of carded 40S cotton yarn has reached 24,200 yuan. Yuan/ton. The current market price of carded 40S is about 23,000 Yuan/ton, and the cost is 1,200 Yuan/ton.
Zhu Minfeng reflected that although cotton prices and costs have increased, due to the downstream cloth The demand from enterprises is not supported. The price of spinning companies can only increase by 50 yuan to 100 yuan per ton this year, which is completely unable to make up for the profit losses caused by the skyrocketing costs. Today, fabric companies are spinning as much yarn as they have as much cotton as they have. , dare not start work rashly. Although Zhu Minfengtun has enough cotton to produce until November, the cotton in the hands of some colleagues around him can only last a few days. Despite this, the trading volume of new cotton in Xinjiang is still at a low level, and inquiry prices There are many, but there are few auctions, and everyone is waiting and watching.
Zheng Bo also said that according to Zhuochuang data statistics, the cotton market is currently in a state of price and no market. Cotton prices have risen this year. It is obvious that medium-sized and above-sized enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have already purchased state cotton reserves early, and the cotton reserves of enterprises may be able to support until November. However, inland provinces such as Henan rely mostly on Jiangsu and Zhejiang for sales, and the production and marketing environment is not good. It is difficult to survive in the cotton price environment.
Since the beginning of this year, the rising costs of raw materials, labor and other costs have severely impacted the already slim-profit fabric industry. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of In June 2016, the number of fabric companies in China with operating income of more than 20 million yuan was 19,937, a decrease of 2,547 compared with 22,484 in 2011. In the first half of 2016, the net profits of listed fabric companies also continued the downward trend of the previous three years, with net profits falling by more than 10% year-on-year.
The industry calls for a dual-track cotton supply system
Cotton price trends closely affect textile companies. Previously, nearly 150 cotton textile and textile companies in Hubei, Shandong, Hebei, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places reported problems in the release of cotton reserves to the China Cotton Textile and Textile Industry Association through phone calls and joint letters. Relevant national departments have increased the daily volume of cotton reserves to 30,000 tons per day, and the stockpiling, which was originally scheduled to end on August 31, has also been extended to September 30. In August and September, cotton prices experienced a correction.
” Cotton farming is like stock trading. If you buy at a high price, you will lose money.” Zhu Minfeng lamented that the cotton market is greatly affected by news and policies, and as a bulk commodity, it is often speculated by traders. , cotton prices fluctuate high and low, and textile companies are deeply affected. At present, the fabric industry is calling for the increment of state cotton reserves and new cotton to be put into the market at the same time, forming a dual-track system to solve the situation of excessive cotton prices.
However, Zheng Bo believes that this statement is not feasible. She said that there are still 7 million tons of cotton in the state reserve after the management is completed, but if a large amount is put into the market, it will cause a sharp drop in cotton prices and harm the interests of cotton farmers. Only when cotton prices are stable can fabric companies develop healthily. She analyzed that because corn prices have plummeted this year and cotton planting profits are high, domestic cotton planting area will expand next year, which will push cotton prices lower.
At the “2016 Pujiang Cotton Industry Forum” hosted by Zhengzhou Commercial Bank in Shanghai on September 23, Liu Keman, director of the Cotton Information Center of China Reserve Cotton Information Center, also predicted the trend of cotton reserve policies in the new year. She suggested that fabric companies should learn from experience and maintain reasonable inventories to avoid the passive situation of “waiting for rice to be ready.”
AAA57865ERT34GSD
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: Some of the texts, pictures, audios, and videos of some articles published on this site are from the Internet and do not represent the views of this site. The copyrights belong to the original authors. If you find that the information reproduced on this website infringes upon your rights, please contact us and we will change or delete it as soon as possible.
AAA��The situation of dual-track system to solve the situation of excessive cotton prices.
However, Zheng Bo believes that this statement is not feasible. She said that there are still 7 million tons of cotton in the state reserve after the management is completed, but if a large amount is put into the market, it will cause a sharp drop in cotton prices and harm the interests of cotton farmers. Only when cotton prices are stable can fabric companies develop healthily. She analyzed that because corn prices have plummeted this year and cotton planting profits are high, domestic cotton planting area will expand next year, which will push cotton prices lower.
At the “2016 Pujiang Cotton Industry Forum” hosted by Zhengzhou Commercial Bank in Shanghai on September 23, Liu Keman, director of the Cotton Information Center of China Reserve Cotton Information Center, also predicted the trend of cotton reserve policies in the new year. She suggested that fabric companies should learn from experience and maintain reasonable inventories to avoid the passive situation of “waiting for rice to be ready.”
AAA57865ERT34GSD
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: Some of the texts, pictures, audios, and videos of some articles published on this site are from the Internet and do not represent the views of this site. The copyrights belong to the original authors. If you find that the information reproduced on this website infringes upon your rights, please contact us and we will change or delete it as soon as possible.
AA
