Chemical fiber industry: This year’s “Golden Nine” did not rise as sharply as in previous years
In July and August this year In this month, polyester filament manufacturers generally gained a lot. Due to tight supply, FDY products have high profitability per ton. The income of DTY and POY products is relatively weak. DTY products benefit from the hysteresis of price changes, and their profit levels decline more slowly during the POY price decline. Although POY began to turn a profit in early July, it fell to the edge of profit and loss in mid-to-late September.
Before July this year, polyester filament had a similar trend to the internal price data of WTI crude oil and PTA. From July to August this year, due to the G20 summit, major POY manufacturers recalculated daily quotations for finishing fees and raised prices. This was also the main reason why filament prices remained high in the later period. Crude oil, PTA prices and polyester filament prices rose in early September, but downstream fabric prices were difficult to increase, profits shrank, and shipments were sluggish.
In the past July and August, the price trends of various varieties of polyester filament were basically consistent. Due to the influence of joint quotation factors, even if the POY price weakens temporarily, it will rise rapidly afterwards. The prices of FDY and DTY products with a certain lag period basically received price support before they could follow the decline, and the prices were relatively stable. After mid-September, there was no significant change in raw material prices, and the transaction volume of fabric products in China Textile City surged. However, filament production and sales did not increase significantly, and prices have been consolidating and falling for a long time.
“Golden Nine and Silver Ten” are the traditional peak seasons for the chemical fiber industry, but this year’s “Golden Nine” did not see a surge in market prices like in previous years. Although market analysts are not pessimistic about the market in October, the dull market still makes people feel weak. This year, after a strong rise in the intraday price of WTI crude oil and PTA in the first half of the year, they have maintained a narrow range of fluctuations for a long time, with occasional small rises and falls. They have been unable to form a “tornado” effect on the downstream market, and thus have lost control over downstream price fluctuations. Influence.
Due to the inconvenient transportation during the G20 summit, as well as the parking of a large number of polymerization spinning units, and the continuous increase in quotations by polyester factories, downstream textile companies are stocking up in advance and driven by the mentality of “buying up, not buying down” Next, purchasing volume increased. However, the poor price trend of crude oil and PTA futures has inhibited the purchasing intention of fabric factories to a certain extent. Therefore, the market transaction volume and polyester factory production and sales rate in September this year were lower than the same period last year.
The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has remained at 70%~80% for a long time. However, the product transaction volume of China Textile City is obviously insufficient compared with the same period last year. Although the G20 Summit was held There was a wave of “retaliatory” price increases before, but during the summit, prices were sluggish as expected, and did not improve until mid-September. It is expected that the market outlook will still remain at a high level.
To sum up, although the polyester filament market improved in late September, the upstream and downstream sectors have never been able to work together to push the polyester market higher. It is estimated that downstream textile companies are still at the peak of shipments in October, and as the early inventory is digested, the polyester filament market in October will be slightly better than that in September. However, it still seems to lack upward momentum, and the trading rhythm is still expected to be tepid. , the center of gravity of transactions fluctuated within a narrow range.
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