The export situation of the textile and garment industry remains grim
According to the statistics of the National Key Export Commodity Value Table for February 2009 released by the General Administration of Customs, my country’s total exports of textiles and clothing from January to February 2009 were US$21.903 billion, a 14.54% year-on-year decrease. Among them, the cumulative exports of textiles were US$7.286 billion and the cumulative exports of clothing were US$14.617 billion, with growth rates of -20.6% and -11% respectively.
Export data in February hit a new low for single-month exports since February 2006. According to the January export data released by the General Administration of Customs, in February, my country’s exports of textiles and clothing totaled US$6.674 billion, a decrease of US$8.555 billion or 56.18% from the previous month, and a significant decrease of US$3.625 billion from the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of US$8.555 billion. 35.19%. Among them, the monthly export of textile yarn, fabrics and products was US$2.563 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32.34%; the single-month export of clothing and clothing accessories was US$4.111 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 36.68%. Compared with January, export data in February declined significantly.
There are specific reasons for the large difference in export data between January and February, but the February data also reflects the severe situation of industry exports from one aspect. The data for February still relatively truly reflects the severe situation of the industry amid sluggish foreign demand. The export data in January was not as pessimistic as expected, partly due to the increase in the export tax rebate rate (including the factor of concentrated delivery before the Spring Festival), and also partly due to the gap between “foreign real economic demand – order placement – delivery”. time lag effects. At the China Trade Fair held in Shanghai in early March, the textile and apparel category only recorded a transaction volume of US$1.245 billion, a decrease of 32.47% from the previous session, which also reflected the pressure on industry exports from one aspect.
As leading companies, most listed companies may be able to ensure relatively stable sales in 2009, but the overall internal differentiation of the industry will further intensify. The key to the future is the recovery of demand. According to communication with a number of listed companies (including textiles and clothing), orders received in the first quarter of 2009 were generally stable, and quantity could be guaranteed to a certain extent. However, the quality of orders has declined, with orders becoming more scattered and delivery times shorter. For a company, it will affect its overall profitability. And it needs to be pointed out that most of the listed companies are leading companies in the industry. One of their current effective ways to maintain the total order volume is to snatch orders from unlisted small and medium-sized enterprises. Therefore, the overall situation of the industry is not optimistic, and there will be further differentiation in the future. intensified.
A relatively good phenomenon is that the year-on-year decline in the prices of raw materials (cotton and fabrics) and various auxiliary materials and energy prices is a support for mitigating the decline in corporate profitability (the gap between industry CPI and PPI has narrowed in February 2009) . However, what is important for the industry and related companies now is the recovery of demand, which depends on the recovery of foreign real economies, while other factors are only auxiliary factors.
Regarding the subsequent export situation of the industry, taking into account the time lag impact of the resumption of business operations, the export data in March may be better than that in February, but the data in the first quarter and even the first half of the year are not optimistic. The overall judgment is that with the gradual stabilization of foreign real economies, the export situation in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half of the year, and the full-year exports will maintain the previous expectation of a year-on-year decrease of about 10%.
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