The average cotton yield and total output in Xinjiang are expected to be lower than last year
On October 21, at the Fifth Standing Council of the Fourth Session and National CottonSituation Analysis meeting held by the China Cotton Association, Xinjiang Xiaomianjiao Cotton Cooperative Xie Rui introduced the production and harvesting situation of Xinjiang cotton in the new year.
1. Basic situation of Xinjiang cotton
Xinjiang cotton has now entered the peak harvest period. According to production monitoring data: Xinjiang’s climate conditions are generally suitable for the growth and development of cotton this year, but climate anomalies have occurred in many places. The passage of cold air from March to April and the continuous low-temperature rain and snow had a great impact on cotton sowing, causing some cotton areas to replant, resow or even switch to other crops. The cotton growth period was delayed and the growth was weaker than the same period last year. From May to July, temperatures are higher, precipitation is more, windy weather increases, and other pests and diseases except Khmer thrips occur less frequently. To a certain extent, this makes up for the delay in the cotton growth period caused by the sowing period, and the growth is better than the same period last year. August-September is a critical period for the formation of cotton yield and quality. Most of Xinjiang’s cotton areas have relatively high temperatures and close to normal or less precipitation. Some cotton areas experience periodic high temperature heat damage. The meteorological conditions are generally conducive to the growth of cotton flowers and bolls. Since October, the temperature has been low and continuous rainfall and snowfall have caused cotton wadding and delayed maturation, but the impact on yield and quality has been limited. Overall, cotton in Xinjiang is growing well this year, with less pests and diseases, uniform yields, and more medium and high yields. The average yield is expected to be lower than last year, and due to the reduction in planting area, the total output is also expected to be lower than last year.
In terms of seed cotton sales, since the scale was opened, the purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang cotton areas has continued to rise, and the price of cotton has risen from 8.5 yuan to about 11 yuan. The game between ginning companies and cotton farmers has increased, and cotton farmers are reluctant to sell. After the cotton harvest, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell. , are not in a hurry to sell, and place them in the fields, waiting for satisfactory seed cotton prices; processing companies do not dare to let go of acquisitions due to risk considerations, and there is even a phenomenon that the harvesting progress does not match the delivery progress. As of October 20, , the harvest progress is close to 50%, and the delivery progress is about 40%. The current cotton harvest in northern Xinjiang is close to 70%, and large-scale cotton harvesting in southern Xinjiang has begun. It is expected that Xinjiang cotton harvest will be completed in mid-November.
Compared with the same period last year, Xinjiang cotton’s color grade, length, breaking strength, micronaire value, length uniformity and other indicators have improved significantly. Cotton quality Significantly better than the same period last year. As of October 15, among the cotton that has completed quality inspection, color grade white cotton from grades 1 to 3 accounted for 87.62%, a year-on-year increase of 12.67 percentage points, and length grade 28 mm and above accounted for 97.06%, a year-on-year increase of 20.38 percentage points. Micronaire A+B grade accounted for 52.95%, a year-on-year increase of 6.74 percentage points; the average fracture specific strength was 29.30cN/tex, a year-on-year increase of 1.07cN/tex; the average length uniformity index was 82.63%, a year-on-year increase of 0.44.
2. Changes in Xinjiang’s cotton areas
1. It is difficult for cotton farmers to improve their cotton sales. Due to excess processing capacity, the problem of difficulty in selling cotton has been alleviated to a certain extent this year. The status of cotton farmers in the industrial chain has gradually improved, and their income has been guaranteed. If the exchange of military supplies and free circulation are realized in the future, the problem of cotton farmers’ difficulty in selling cotton will be fundamentally improved.
2. Cotton purchase price wars and resource wars will become the norm. Processing enterprises will not have enough to eat and will starve to death, and the vicious competition will continue. After a market-oriented elimination mechanism, a number of outstanding processing enterprises that meet the needs of cotton industry upgrades will be selected.
3. Cotton harvesting is becoming more and more concentrated. The construction of high-standard farmland in southern Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the planting area of machine-picked cotton has increased. With the change of production mode (hand-picked cotton has also begun to spray defoliants), the increase in cotton-picking machine power and the deployment of machine power in northern and southern Xinjiang , machine-picked cotton and hand-picked cotton will be put on the market together, and the harvest period will become shorter and shorter.
4. The role of cooperatives is obvious. Cooperatives are the product of the cottonindustrial economy that has developed to a certain stage. They are the bridge and link between cotton growers and enterprises. Xinjiang’s professional cotton cooperatives have increased significantly, and cotton farmers’ voluntary organizations have management, helping small and individual cotton farmers strive for a say in the cotton industry chain.
5. The cotton planting area is gradually decreasing. In recent years, various regions in Xinjiang have gradually adjusted the agricultural planting structure and strictly implemented the policy of “returning land and reducing water”, which has continuously reduced the cotton planting area. In 2021, 2.4 million acres of land and water will be returned to Xinjiang (including 1.9 million acres in local areas and 500,000 acres in the Corps). mu). Coupled with years of continuous cotton cultivation and extensive use of chemical fertilizers, problems such as declining soil fertility, soil compaction, and abnormal climate are threatening the prospects for sustainable development of Xinjiang’s cotton industry.
6. The cost of cotton planting continues to increase. As the supply of land, water resources, labor, etc. continues to tighten, and various highly automated machinery are put into use, the unit cost increases rapidly when the scale of planting cannot be significantly expanded. The total cost of cotton planting in some areas has reached about 2,500 yuan/acre, of which land transfer fees, pesticides and fertilizers, water fees, etc. have all been increased. The increase in cotton planting costs will be a long-term phenomenon.
7. The quality of cotton cannot meet the growing demand for textiles. Xinjiang has a vast territory, with a large span from north to south, and the climate isSoil conditions vary widely, cotton maturity issues are complicated, and necessary quality divisions are lacking. Cotton farmers are unable to match the most suitable varieties for planting based on internal and external factors, resulting in many varieties and poor consistency of cotton. Production, processing and textile enterprises The lack of unified standards in other aspects leads to insufficient overall quality and spinnability.
Three, some suggestions
1. Distribute cotton target price subsidies in a timely manner. Subsidies will be distributed to cotton farmers in June or July of next year. Although the subsidy will eventually reach the hands of cotton farmers, due to the late release time, the subsidy cannot be received in time when cotton farmers need money most, which will have a certain impact on cotton farmers’ cotton production.
2. Gradually improve the interest mechanism of the cotton industry chain. Establish cotton production and marketing standards that integrate cotton production, services, circulation, processing, sales and other aspects, guide the coordinated and efficient operation of all links in the industrial chain, form strong industrial strength and market competitiveness, and gradually become my country’s cotton industry varieties, The highland of technology, equipment and talent.
3. Cotton will achieve “high quality and good price” as soon as possible. This year, the autonomous region launched a cotton quality subsidy traceability pilot program in 15 counties and 20 Corps farms. The government and growers attach great importance to it and hope to expand the scale next year. At the same time, we must actively explore ways to solve the problem of high quality and low price from the source of acquisition, so that the entire industry can improve quality awareness.
4. Unify the market prices of troops and lands and realize mutual exchange of troops and lands. Accelerate the construction of a unified market across Xinjiang, promote the true integration of the cotton market in Xinjiang, promote the unified formation of market prices in military areas, and achieve mutual recognition of cotton.
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