Zhu Beina: Enterprises with high price differences between domestic and foreign cotton are under pressure. Poor upstream and downstream transmission requires attention
The 2021’Xinjiang Cotton Industry Development Forum is in progress. Zhu Beina, Chairman of the Supervisory Committee of the ChinaCotton Textile Industry Association, discussed the “Analysis and Prospects for the Operation of the Cotton Textile Industry in 2021” Give a speech on the topic. She introduced four aspects of the cotton spinning industry.
1. Overall situation.
The production capacity is on a downward trend and the output is stable. The main feature is that the production capacity is developing in the direction of intelligent, automation and greening, and the production efficiency of the equipment is improved, making the output of gauze basically stable. . In terms of raw material usage, the usage of chemical fiber staple fiber accounted for 49% in 2010 and has reached 65% in 2020. Both the output and usage of new differentiated fibers have increased, and the survey shows that 77.2% of companies expect greater growth in the next five years.
Cotton prices fluctuate significantly. On October 9, it has reached 22,590 yuan/ton, which is the highest level in the past ten years. Many companies analyze whether the situation will return to the situation in 2010 to 2011. It should not be achieved because the market situation and background have changed a lot. But one thing that should attract attention is that the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has reached 3,000 yuan/ton, and companies are under great pressure. In terms of fluctuations in related raw materials, cotton increased from the lowest to the highest by 116%, viscose by 88%, and staple fiber by 56%. The price difference is large. The Cotton Spinning Association actively encourages more of companies increase the use of chemical staple fibers and reduce procurement costs.
In terms of raw material and product price trends, cotton, pure cotton yarn and pure cotton cloth have increased by 116% respectively. , 58%, 45%, indicating that when cotton rises, the downstream cannot follow the rise, and the transmission is not smooth, which should be paid attention to.
2. Operational conditions.
In the past three years from 2019 to 2021, firstly, the equipment utilization rate of key enterprises is higher than that of small and medium-sized enterprises; secondly, the equipment utilization rate of spinning enterprises is higher than that of weaving enterprises. At the same time, the operation rate of spinning enterprises in 2021 has been greater than that of weaving enterprises. 2019.
Judging from the tracking of gauze production, due to the low year-on-year base numbers in 2019 and 2018, gauze production increased year-on-year this year, but fell month-on-month in September. Gauze sales turned from negative to positive in 2021, but the cumulative growth from January to September was lower than that from January to August, indicating poor sales. In terms of inventory, gauze inventory increased from January to August. Two situations began to occur in September. One was power rationing and a sharp increase in cotton prices, which led to a growing wait-and-see sentiment. Second, small weaving enterprises have poor ability to withstand pressure, and more enterprises have been shut down than spinning enterprises.
Main economic indicators have increased. Comparing 99 sample companies in 2021 with 2019, the growth in marketing revenue seems small but significant, and the profit growth of 3.39% is also very impressive. However, due to sluggish sales in the international market, export delivery values declined, indicating that operating income and profit growth were mainly in the domestic market.
3. Internal and external markets
The gauze sales of key cotton spinning enterprises are basically consistent with the sales of clothing and textiles above the domestic demand market limit, indicating that the overall national internal circulation has played a very good role. The export delivery value of key enterprises dropped significantly and returned to the slow growth range. The year-on-year growth in textile and apparel exports mainly came from protective materials.
Cotton yarn imports have been around 2 million tons in recent years. There is domestic demand due to price reasons, especially when the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is large. From a country perspective, firstly, Vietnam accounts for 46%, and a large part of it is yarn imported by domestic enterprises investing in Vietnam; in addition, Pakistan has zero tariff, which will be increased in the future. There is relatively large growth.
IV. Anticipation Analysis
The global economic situation is relatively severe. From an industry perspective, it involves Sino-US trade, Xinjiang-related bills, and the ongoing epidemic.
The global economic recovery is slow and there are many uncertainties. First of all, the rise in bulk commodity prices has driven up the price of raw materials. Downstream cannot follow the rise, and the market outlook will be dangerous, so everyone must be very cautious when purchasing raw materials. In October, many companies have begun to close the market without quoting prices, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
Due to the national dual-control policy and power and production restrictions, many companies have been forced to decline overall. In particular, small weaving companies have experienced greater declines, so there are many problems in accepting orders. Some home textile and clothing manufacturing companies have temporarily stopped accepting orders. There are also some traders and brands who have large inventories and do not place orders. Many textile companies purchase a large amount of raw materials, some can be used until the Spring Festival, and some can only be used for about a month.
Factors for the later increase include rising commodity prices; overcapacity in cotton processing, various factors pushing up the price of seed cotton in the new year; power rationing; Sino-US negotiations, rising international cotton prices; increased demand for pure cotton products; demand in the post-epidemic period recover.
Factors for the decline include national macroeconomic control policies; poor upstream and downstream price transmission; uncertainty about foreign trade reflow orders; and slowing economic growth.
The factors of rising and falling are in the game, and industrial safety is the most important. I hope everyone will invest prudently and be sure to see whether demand increases in the long run. Practice has proven that demand has been stable over the past ten years. Enterprises should also pay attention to non-�Fiber will play a positive role in promoting the development of the industry.
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