The overall poor demand situation at home and abroad has led to a plunge in foreign trade data
Generally speaking, the overall poor demand situation at home and abroad is the fundamental reason for the plunge in foreign trade data. The many policies implemented last year to boost foreign trade will be difficult to achieve fundamental reversal. It can only be said that without these policies, the data It might be uglier.
On February 15, the General Administration of Customs announced my country’s foreign trade import and export situation in January 2016. The data showed that both my country’s import and export declined in January, with the total value hitting a new low since March 2015.
According to customs statistics, in January 2016, my country’s total import and export value was 1.88 trillion yuan1, a decrease of 9.8% compared with the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports were 1.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.6%; imports were 737.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.4%; the trade surplus was 406.2 billion yuan, an expansion of 12.2%.
“The outlook for foreign trade is worrying. Commodity export prices have fallen again, and the recovery of domestic demand is not yet solid. Domestic and domestic demand are weak at the same time, and growth will be under greater pressure in the next few months.” Analysis by Qu Hongbin, Chief Economist and Managing Director of HSBC Greater China It is believed that the data was weaker than expected, with export growth recording -11.2%, the lowest since March last year.
Amid the gloomy foreign trade data, export prospects may not improve until the second half of the year.
As one of the main drivers of my country’s exports, including both “high-precision” and a large number of labor-intensive products, the export trend of mechanical and electrical products reflects the most representative aspect of my country’s current foreign trade situation – mechanical and electrical products account for half of the total export value. The decline in product exports has cast a deeper shadow on the export prospects.
Customs data shows that exports of traditional labor-intensive products such as mechanical and electrical products, textiles and clothing have declined. In January, my country’s exports of mechanical and electrical products were 632.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.8%, accounting for 55.3% of the total export value.
The sluggish export situation reflects that the depreciation of the RMB has less stimulating effect on export promotion. Ren Zeping, chief macroeconomic analyst at Guotai Junan, believes that the decline in exports is due to negative impacts such as the global economic downturn, and also shows that the depreciation of the RMB has no obvious effect on export promotion. However, the trade surplus continues to exceed market expectations, which will help the central bank maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate.
“January’s foreign trade data shows that the current pressure on exports is still relatively high. The pressure is continuing in 2015, especially in the first half of this year, and will be under pressure for one to two quarters.” Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, told ” Reporter of Daily Economic News, “It may take until the second half of the year to realize an improvement in exports.”
Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in January 2016, my country’s imports and exports to major markets such as the EU, the United States, ASEAN, and Japan all declined, with declines of 9.9%, 9.9%, 10.8%, and 6% respectively.
External demand has been sluggish for many years, and the pressure accumulated since 2015 is still heavy. Last year’s government work report set the foreign trade target at a full-year growth rate of around 6%. However, since both import and export data fell sharply in January last year, foreign trade has not gotten out of the decline for a full year.
Customs data shows that my country’s total import and export value of goods trade in 2015 was 24.59 trillion yuan, down 7% from 2014 and far below the target set at the beginning of last year. Among them, exports were 14.14 trillion yuan, down 1.8%; imports were 10.45 trillion yuan, down 13.2%.
In Bai Ming’s view, the “diving” of import and export data in January this year shows that my country’s foreign trade is facing a complex situation of domestic economic decline and weakening international demand.
“Domestic demand has weakened and imports have declined; internationally, the United States’ fourth quarter data last year was not good, Japan’s economic situation is not ideal, Europe is facing the shadow of terrorism and the European debt crisis; we want to transfer hope to emerging markets Economies, but Brazil and Russia also submitted relatively poor answers.” Bai Ming told reporters, “Generally speaking, the situation faced by domestic enterprises now is that there is very little room for comfort, and they need to survive through struggle and hard work. Seek survival space in competition.”
“Many foreign-funded enterprises continue to ‘leave’, taking orders with them. The ‘going out’ strategy implemented by Chinese enterprises has created a substitution effect by similar enterprises abroad.” Bai Ming said, “So we should consider the incremental basis Cooperation, let’s make the cake bigger and eat the bigger cake together, instead of competing with ‘you and me’. To completely reverse the decline, we must rely on reform and improve industrial levels, and at the same time wait for the emergence of new hot spots in the international market.” Domestic and foreign demand The overall poor situation has led to a plunge in foreign trade data
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