The transformation and upgrading of foreign trade requires more policies
Data recently released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that in January, my country’s international trade in goods and services income based on the balance of payments was US$185.6 billion, expenditure was US$150.6 billion, and the surplus was US$35 billion, an increase of US$3.2 billion from the previous month. Among them, the trade surplus in goods was US$55.7 billion; the trade deficit in services was US$20.7 billion.
In addition, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on February 15, in January, my country’s total import and export value was US$291.663 billion, a year-on-year growth of -14.34%. Among them, exports were US$177.475 billion, a year-on-year increase of -11.2%; imports were US$114.188 billion, a year-on-year increase of -18.8%, recording a trade surplus of US$63.287 billion, an increase of US$3.698 billion from the previous month, a record high.
Xie Yaxun, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, said in an interview with this reporter that the high trade surplus in January showed that imports were more sluggish than exports. However, Xie Yaxuan said that the data in January and February each year are greatly affected by the Spring Festival effect. From the seasonal pattern, PMI imports and new export orders are generally relatively sluggish in January; during the Spring Festival, factories tend to stop work early and start work late. The Spring Festival this year is earlier than last year. The impact of the Spring Festival factor may be mainly reflected in January and February. The export scale in March last year was 144.3 billion U.S. dollars, the lowest level of the year. The impact of the Spring Festival factor was shared, which may lead to January this year. , Export growth in February was generally lower than the true level of demand changes.
Specifically, exports in January were lower than market expectations, consistent with the new export orders sub-item of the PMI declining again. In terms of countries, exports to Europe, the United States, Japan and Australia increased by -12.0%, -9.9%, -6% and -0.6% respectively year-on-year, while exports to ASEAN, South Korea, Brazil, India and Russia dropped to – 16.1%, both down to varying degrees from the previous month. The manufacturing PMIs of Europe, the United States, Japan and Australia declined collectively in January. Major economic data were also relatively worse than expected. Fundamentals also showed that external demand was not strong at the beginning of 2016. In addition, the violent turmoil in global financial markets at the beginning of the year was not conducive to the stability of economic entities’ expectations. But there are bright spots in the data. Data show that exports to India rose against the trend in January, reflecting India’s growing demand.
In terms of imports, January data were also significantly lower than market expectations. The PMI import sub-item fell to a one-year low. Based on previous economic data and high-frequency price data, domestic demand did not improve in January. Crude oil, steel, copper, iron and steel Imports of ore and other products have significantly decreased. Judging from the CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) index, commodity prices in January increased steadily compared with the previous month, but they were still significantly lower than last year’s levels year-on-year, which had little boost to imports.
“The fundamental situation confirms that domestic and foreign demand is indeed weak, but the import and export situation may not be as pessimistic as the year-on-year data in January shows. A more accurate judgment needs to be based on the first quarter data.” Xie Yaxuan said that the countermeasures introduced in January Measures to supervise false trade such as restrictions on entrepot trade spreads, the narrowing of offshore and onshore exchange differentials under macro-prudential policies, and tight offshore RMB liquidity have all inhibited false trade, resulting in the removal of part of the foreign trade data in January. “Moisture” includes the influence of factors such as false trade moisture, advance customs declaration and the Spring Festival effect.
Trade data unexpectedly picked up last month, and some analysts believe that a weak yuan will help exports. The import and export data in January were both lower than expected. Judging from this month’s data, the positive effect of exchange rate depreciation may be limited.
Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng said not long ago: “General theory holds that in the context of deep economic integration of various countries, currency depreciation and appreciation, if it does not exceed 10%, will have minimal impact on trade. Therefore, I do not It is believed that some fluctuations after the mid-term quotation of RMB in the recent period will have a great impact on trade.”
Regarding the foreign trade situation in 2016, the General Administration of Customs said that the downward pressure on exports will weaken. According to the reporter’s understanding, China’s foreign trade export leading index in January was 31.7, an increase of 0.5 from December last year. It was the first month-on-month rebound since February 2015. It is preliminarily judged that my country’s export pressure is expected to be alleviated in the second quarter of 2016.
During the interview, many experts said that promoting the stable development of foreign trade in 2016 should start from the supply-side structural reform. On the one hand, taxes and fees should be reduced, and on the other hand, the service industry and the import and export of high-tech products should be encouraged and supported.
In addition, tax reduction measures for imported goods are also being actively promoted. Since June 1 last year, my country has reduced the import tariff rates on some daily consumer goods such as clothing, shoes, and skin care products, with an average reduction of more than 50%. From January 1 this year, my country has further imposed restrictions on 16 types of imported daily consumer goods such as bags and bags. Implement tax cuts. According to the 2016 “Tariff Implementation Plan”, the tentative import tax rate for household water filtration devices, including household water filtration kettle cores, has been reduced from 12% to 5%.
“The continued intensification of policies has not yet formed a reversal of support for foreign trade, and the potential has yet to be tapped. This includes vigorously developing e-commerce and cross-border e-commerce, developing service trade, implementing the construction of the ‘Belt and Road’, and establishing self-owned enterprises in batches. Trade pilot zones, China-South Korea, China-Australia and other free trade agreements will further boost imports, etc. It will take time for the dividends of these policies to be released.” said Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce. The transformation and upgrading of foreign trade requires more policies
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