The total value of my country’s import and export trade is estimated to be in the trillions

Recently, the Customs Information Network’s “Overview of my country’s Economic Situation and Analysis Report on Import and Export Trade Situation in 2015 (Annual Report)” took stock of my country’s import and export trade and macroeconomic operations in 2015, and analyzed the structure of import and export trade. The main features were analyzed in depth, and scientific estimates were made of the total value and growth rate of my country’s import and export trade in 2016.

The report believes that the world economic growth generally slowed down in 2015 and entered an era of medium to low speed growth. The economic growth momentum of developed economies is insufficient and the recovery process is slow. The overall performance of emerging economies is poor. Although the decline has slowed down, there are no signs of rebound. Faced with the complex international situation, my country’s real economy is performing weakly, investment has declined overall, and the growth rate of import and export trade has further declined, showing negative growth. my country’s economy is under greater downward pressure.

At the same time, the report also took stock of my country’s macroeconomic operations and import and export trade in 2015, conducted an in-depth analysis of the main characteristics of the import and export trade structure, and found that the total value of my country’s foreign trade imports and exports has dropped significantly, but the structure It is being further optimized, transformation and upgrading is further accelerated, and emerging driving forces are also further accumulating: In this regard, the Customs Information Network has conducted analysis from five major perspectives: trading partner analysis, regional analysis, trade mode analysis, enterprise nature analysis, and commodity analysis. Analysis in simple terms.

After in-depth analysis from the above five major perspectives, the annual report of the Customs Information Network believes that: At present, the world economy will still be in a period of deep adjustment, the recovery prospects of major countries and regions are still unclear, and our country’s economy is in the stage of deepening reform and structural adjustment. During this period, it still faced challenges from many factors such as sluggish international commodity prices, overcapacity, and the conversion of old and new growth drivers. Benefiting from the gradual emergence of the effects of the national policy to stabilize growth, the continuous advancement of the “three reductions, one reduction, and one supplement” tasks, as well as the low base effect of the previous year, my country’s import and export growth rate is expected to turn negative into positive. It is expected that throughout 2016 The total value of my country’s import and export trade was approximately 25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Among them, imports were 10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; exports were 15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%.

It is understood that the annual report of the Customs Information Network is divided into three parts as a whole, namely: a summary of the economic situation in 2015, the main characteristics of import and export trade in 2015, and the influencing factors and trends of my country’s import and export trade in 2016 Research and judge.

Overview of the economic situation in 2015

When analyzing the overall economic situation in 2015, the report pointed out that the world economy as a whole entered an era of low-speed growth in 2015, with the Japanese economy remaining sluggish and the European economy recovering slowly. When analyzing and summarizing China’s economic situation, the report pointed out that China’s economy is facing structural readjustment and the growth rate may continue to bottom out; and from a regional analysis of China, foreign trade in central China has grown against the trend; trade in the western region has experienced a larger year-on-year decline. The import situation has improved; foreign trade in the eastern region has picked up, and the declines in exports and imports have narrowed. Analysis from the perspective of China’s trade patterns: general trade export growth is higher than the overall, processing trade has experienced a double decline, and foreign trade benefits in special customs supervision areas have increased slightly… Part of the content is as follows:

When analyzing and summarizing China’s economic situation, the report pointed out that my country’s economic growth has slowed down, but the structure continues to be optimized and upgraded. The specific performance is as follows:

(1) Domestic economic growth slowed down: China’s economy grew by 6.9% in 2015, falling below 7% for the first time in 25 years, and growing by 1.6% from the third quarter.

(2) The price level is running at a low level: the consumer price for the whole year increased by 1.4% compared with the previous year. Among them, urban prices increased by 1.5% and rural areas increased by 1.3%. In terms of categories, food prices increased by 2.3% year-on-year, clothing prices increased by 2.7%, and housing prices increased by 0.7%. Among food prices, grain prices increased by 2.0% and pork prices increased by 9.5%.

(3) The price of industrial raw materials is sluggish: the factory price of industrial producers fell by 5.2% year-on-year throughout the year. In December, it fell by 5.9% year-on-year and by 0.6% month-on-month. The purchasing price of industrial producers fell by 6.1% year-on-year for the whole year, 6.8% year-on-year in December, and 0.7% month-on-month.

It is worth mentioning that the scale of social financing increased sharply in 2015. The specific performance is as follows: at the end of 2015, the stock of social financing was 138.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. In 2015, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 92.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%; the RMB-equivalent balance of foreign currency loans issued to the real economy was 3.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.0%; the balance of entrusted loans was 109,300 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; the balance of trust loans was 5.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%; the balance of undiscounted bank acceptance bills was 5.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%.

The main characteristics of my country’s import and export trade in 2015

(1) The development of import and export trade has entered a new normal, and the export leading index shows that the pressure on foreign trade exports will still be great in the future

　1. In 2015, my country’s import and export growth rate declined sharply, and the export leading index showed that export pressure is still very high

In 2015, my country’s total import and export value was 24.58 trillion yuan, down 7% from 2014, of which exports were 1.41 billion yuan, down 1.8%, imports were 10.45 trillion yuan, down 13.2%, and the trade surplus was 3.69 trillion yuan, expanding 56.7%. Judging from the monthly trend, except for positive growth in February, the rest of the months were negative growth, of whichIn this period, the recovery prospects of major countries and regions are still uneven. my country’s economic growth is in the new normal of deepening reform and structural adjustment. It still faces challenges from many factors such as the differentiation and decline of international commodity prices, overcapacity and the conversion of old and new growth drivers. . However, benefiting from the gradual emergence of the effects of the government’s policies to stabilize growth, the continuous advancement of the “three reductions, one reduction, and one supplement” tasks and the low base effect of the previous year, my country’s import and export growth rate is expected to turn negative into positive in 2016. Combined with the Box-Jenkins model, the total value of my country’s import and export trade in 2016 was approximately 25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Among them, imports were 10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; exports were 15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. It is estimated that the total value of my country’s import and export trade in 2016 is 25 trillion

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