Review and Outlook of my country’s Textile and Clothing Import and Export Rates
In 2015, the cumulative trade volume of textiles and apparel was US$309.51 billion, down 4.8%, of which exports were US$283.9 billion, down 4.9%, and imports were US$25.61 billion, down 3.5%. The cumulative trade surplus was US$258.29 billion, down 5%.
1. Both imports and exports fell throughout the year, and exports showed a structural decline
In 2015, China’s foreign trade once again encountered a “cold wave”, with both imports and exports falling for the first time since the global financial crisis in 2009. As a representative of labor-intensive products, textiles and clothing were the first to bear the brunt, with annual exports falling by 4.9% and imports falling by 3.5%. The decline in exports exceeded that of national goods trade exports, and the trade surplus also fell again. This decline is different from 2009. In 2009, it was due to the sudden global financial crisis that led to a sharp contraction in trade volume. However, the decline in exports in 2015 was more due to the disappearance of China’s traditional export advantages and the structural decline caused by the superposition of internal and external unfavorable environments. , the decline in imports is mainly attributed to the slowdown in domestic economic growth and insufficient demand.
2. Trade methods are diversified, and comprehensive foreign trade service platforms are constantly emerging
In 2015, the trade structure was further optimized, with the proportions of general trade imports and exports accounting for 76.9% and 51.5% respectively, an increase of 3 percentage points and 1 percentage point respectively compared with 2014. The emerging market procurement trade mode developed rapidly in the middle of the year. Under the “other trade” mode dominated by market procurement trade, the annual export volume reached 12.28 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 31.1%, and exports accounted for 4.3%. Trade was flat.
Exports in the main forms of trade declined, with general trade down by 3.6%, processing trade down by 15.1%, and small border trade down by 20%. General trade dropped the smallest. In terms of imports, the import share of general trade exceeded that of processing trade in 2014. After that, the gap between the two further widened. In 2015, the import share of general trade reached 51.5%, and the import volume increased by 2.5% year-on-year. During the same period, the import share of processing trade shrank to 38.6%. The year-on-year decrease was 12.3%, which exerted a negative influence on overall imports.
Business entities tend to be optimized. Private enterprises further expanded, with exports reaching US$188.98 billion. Two-thirds of the country’s exports came from private enterprises; the export shares of state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises retreated to 11.5% and 21.7% respectively. The exports of foreign-funded enterprises fell the most rapidly, down by nearly 10%, state-owned enterprises dropped by 7.7%, and private enterprises only dropped by 2.9%.
The foreign trade development model has changed. As an innovation in the import and export business model, comprehensive foreign trade service platforms such as “Yidatong” have flourished in 2015. Among the top 20 companies in the annual export volume, such companies (including trading companies) accounted for nearly half The number of seats has doubled compared to 2014.
Faced with the severe foreign trade situation, large and super-large enterprises have shown stronger ability to withstand pressure. Among the more than 90,000 export enterprises in the country, less than 1% are large and super-large enterprises with an export volume of more than 50 million US dollars, but they account for 30% of the export share, and the overall export dropped by 3.9%, which was smaller than the average.
3. Most traditional markets performed poorly, but emerging markets still have bright spots
(1) EU-Multiple factors caused my exports to the EU to fall by nearly 10%
The EU economy has not yet fully stabilized, the development of the countries within the EU is unbalanced, and the market is affected by political factors, which caused China’s exports to the EU to fall again in 2015. The annual export volume was US$53.13 billion, down 9.4%. Among them, clothing fell by 10.3% and textiles fell by 6.5%. The total export volume of needle-woven garments for major categories of commodities fell by 10%, and the unit price fell by 1%.
Exports to most of the 28 countries in the alliance declined. Among the top 10 countries, only the United Kingdom maintained a relatively rapid growth of 7.8%.
(2) United States – The United States has become the only traditional market that has achieved growth in our exports
The U.S. market is relatively stable. In the past 10 years, our exports to the United States have always maintained growth. In 2015, the United States became my only traditional large market that maintained export growth. Exports to the United States for the whole year were US$47.74 billion, with export volume reaching a new high, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, which provided a positive boost to overall exports. Among them, clothing exports increased by 6.9%, and the total export volume of needle and woven clothing increased by 8.4%, while the unit price fell by 1.1%. Textile exports increased by 6.2%, of which fabrics and finished products increased by 6.1% and 6.8% respectively, and yarn decreased by 2.8%.
(3) ASEAN – Clothing exports fell rapidly, causing exports to ASEAN to decline
The five consecutive years of growth in exports to ASEAN came to an end in 2015. Exports to ASEAN for the whole year were US$35.82 billion, a decrease of 0.8%, mainly due to a 12.5% decrease in apparel exports. The total export volume of medium-needle woven clothing fell by 7.8%, and the unit price fell by 7.4%. Textile exports maintained a growth of 6.5%, with fabrics and finished products increasing by 11.3% and 0.3% respectively, and yarn falling by 12.3%.
(4) Japan – Exports to Japan have declined the fastest among traditional markets, and clothing exports continue to decline
The sluggish Japanese economy, the appreciation of the RMB against the yen, and the transfer of orders have continued the downward trend in exports to Japan in 2015. The cumulative export volume for the year was US$21.65 billion, a decrease of 11.7%. Japan’s share of China’s export market has decreased within 5 years. 3.3 percentage points, accounting for only 7.6%. Textiles and clothing dropped by 9.5% and 12.2% respectively. The total export volume of needle and woven clothing, which accounted for the main share, fell by 11.5%, setting a new low in the past 10 years. The average export unit price fell by 1.3%.
(5) Emerging markets performed well, and some of the “Belt and Road”�The spot price index FCIndexM of China’s imported cotton was 71.50 cents/pound on December 31, a slight increase of 0.14 cents from the end of November. The 1% tariff discounted RMB 11,677/ton, which was lower than the Chinese cotton price index of 1,245 yuan/ton in the same period. tons, the price difference narrowed by 117 yuan compared with the same period last month; the sliding tax discount was RMB 13,916 per ton, which was higher than the Chinese cotton price index of 994 yuan in the same period, and the price difference expanded by 77 yuan compared with the previous month. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton continues to narrow, and the price advantage of foreign cotton is further weakened. (The above two paragraphs are excerpted from the China Cotton Association website)
8. Situation Analysis
(1) The factors causing export decline will not change in the short term, and export reduction will become the new normal
There are many reasons for the decline in textile and apparel exports in 2015, and new and old problems coexist. There has been no substantial improvement in external market demand: the EU and Japanese economies have been in a sluggish state, the economic development of EU member states is unbalanced, the unemployment rate in Greece and other countries continues to be high, and people’s consumer demand is restricted; the Japanese market has seen an overall decline in imports in recent years, coupled with industrial transfers The pace is accelerating, and the share of Chinese products in Japan continues to decline; the ASEAN market has also failed to continue the growth trend of previous years and has experienced a rapid decline; the Russian market has fallen sharply; only the US market has remained relatively stable.
Although domestic measures to stabilize growth have been gradually implemented, the results are not yet significant in the short term. There is little room to achieve growth solely through policies. Problems such as rising labor costs, increasing pressure on environmental protection, and financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises still exist and are becoming increasingly prominent. The passive appreciation of the RMB against non-USD currencies has further reduced China’s export competitiveness. Currently, the development of foreign trade in the country as a whole is facing a new situation. Textiles and garments, especially the garment industry, as representatives of labor-intensive products, need to go through a longer period of time to realize the transformation of growth momentum. The next three to five years will be an important step for China’s textile and garment industry to make in-depth adjustments. During this period, a decline in export volume will become inevitable.
(2) The government and enterprises have joined forces, and the export prospects in 2016 are not pessimistic
Although facing a complex and severe situation and increasing downward pressure on exports, there is no need to be blindly pessimistic about exports in 2016. At present, all levels from the government to enterprises are actively thinking of ways and countermeasures.
Government level – After the implementation of policies to stabilize growth, efforts will continue to be made to provide more relaxed conditions for exports. Encourage local commercial departments to accelerate the application of new trade models and Internet+ to generate new foreign trade growth points.
Corporate level – Large foreign trade companies accelerate “going out” and seize the opportunities of the “One Belt and One Road” to expand overseas layout; strengthen independent research and development capabilities and brand building, improve production efficiency, create a scientific and effective supply chain management model, and develop from traditional producers and middlemen transform into full-process service providers. Under the leadership of large enterprises, we will drive small and medium-sized enterprises to merge and reorganize, integrate local enterprise clusters, and use this as the core to form a new era of foreign trade export characteristics that focus on quality, structural optimization, technological innovation, and from “manufacturing” to “creation”.
At the same time, although there are no obvious signs of improvement in the domestic and international economic situation, it will not plummet deeply. The demand from major economies will still remain at a considerable level; market development efforts are increasing, and companies are gradually becoming more interested and stronger in exploring emerging markets. Strengthen and inject growth momentum into exports.
Based on the above factors, it is initially expected that textile and apparel exports will decline slightly in 2016, or remain at the same level as in 2015.
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