Overview of national textile and apparel trade
In May 2016, the total import and export value of national trade in goods was US$312.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. Among them, exports were US$181.06 billion, down 4.1%; imports were US$131.08 billion, down 0.4%. The trade surplus for the month was US$49.98 billion. From January to May, the total import and export value was US$1.41013 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%. Among them, exports were US$813.81 billion, down 7.3%; imports were US$596.31 billion, down 10.3%, with a cumulative trade surplus of US$217.5 billion.
In May, the textile and apparel trade volume was US$25.45 billion, an increase of 0.03%, of which exports were US$23.52 billion, an increase of 0.5%, and imports were US$1.93 billion, a decrease of 5.7%. The trade surplus for the month was US$21.59 billion, an increase of 1.2%. From January to May, the textile and apparel trade volume was US$110.17 billion, down 2.8%, of which exports were US$101.01 billion, down 2%, and imports were US$9.16 billion, down 11.5%. The cumulative trade surplus was US$91.85 billion, down 0.9%.
1. Exports continued to grow, with the growth rate narrowing.
In May, textile and apparel exports continued to grow, but with the gradual expansion of the year-on-year base, the growth rate was significantly smaller than in the previous two months. It only increased by 0.5% in US dollars for the month, and the growth rates were 33.6 and 4.4 percentage points lower than in March and April respectively. .
The growth for three consecutive months has further narrowed the cumulative decline in exports in the first five months to 2%. From the current perspective, the export trend of textiles and clothing is relatively stable. However, due to the lack of rapid growth momentum, the increase or decrease in exports in the next few months will still be consistent with the increase or decrease. The base figures for the same period last year are closely related, and another decline cannot be ruled out.
2. Exports of major trade modes except processing trade all achieved growth.
In May, exports of general trade and other trade methods based on market procurement continued to grow, with an increase of 1.2% and 29.2% respectively. The growth rate dropped significantly from the previous two months; processing trade fell by 14.7%, and border small trade Growth returned to 4.9% that month. From January to May, the cumulative exports of general trade resumed growth by 0.1%, other trade methods increased by 38.6%, and processing trade and small border trade decreased by 16.5% and 22.5% respectively.
3. Major markets performed poorly, while ASEAN showed slight improvement.
European Union—The growth rate of exports to the EU has significantly narrowed, and Brexit will have a negative impact on Sino-British trade in the short term.
In May, China’s exports to the EU only grew by 0.2%, significantly smaller than the previous period. Among them, textiles increased by 7.5% and clothing decreased by 2.2%. Cumulative exports to the EU from January to May were US$17.47 billion, a decrease of 3.9%, of which textiles increased by 4.2%, clothing decreased by 6.9%, needle and woven clothing exports decreased by 1.1%, and the average export unit price decreased by 6.6%.
The UK is the largest market for our textiles and clothing in the EU, and it is also a relatively stable market. In 2015, the textile and apparel trade volume between China and the UK reached US$12.63 billion, accounting for 4% of China’s global trade. From January to May 2016, China’s overall exports to the EU declined, but its exports to the UK still maintained a 3% growth. In late June, as soon as the news of Britain’s “Brexit” came out, it caused turmoil in the global financial market. The pound and the euro plummeted, and the possibility of a sharp decline in the market outlook is still not ruled out. It will put depreciation pressure on the RMB against the US dollar, but the exchange rate against the British pound may rise. In the short term, it will bring certain uncertainty to foreign trade denominated in euros and pounds.
United States—The decline in exports to the United States expanded, and clothing exports declined.
The U.S. market, which had been stable in the early stage, also continued to decline. Exports to the United States fell by 9.2% in May, a decline that was 6 percentage points larger than in April. Among them, textiles and clothing dropped by 6.1% and 10.3% respectively, and the export volume of needle and woven clothing dropped by 9.5%. From January to May, cumulative exports to the United States were US$15.94 billion, down 3.1%, of which textiles fell by 6.1% and clothing fell by 1.8%. The export volume of key commodities, needle-woven garments, decreased by 1.2%, and the average export unit price increased by 1.4%.
ASEAN—Exports to ASEAN maintain growth, and apparel exports continue to expand.
Exports to ASEAN in May were US$3.27 billion, an increase of 8.5%. The growth rate was smaller than that of the previous two months. However, the monthly export volume continued to expand and continued to grow month-on-month. Textiles and clothing grew by 6.8% and 12.7% respectively, with exports of knitted clothing increasing for three consecutive months.
From January to May, China’s cumulative exports to ASEAN were US$13.97 billion, with the decline further narrowing to 0.6%, of which textiles increased by 7.9% and clothing decreased by 17.4%. Major categories of commodities, yarns, fabrics and finished products, all resumed growth. The export volume of knitted and woven garments narrowed to 3.9%, and the average unit price of exports fell by 15.2%.
Japan–Japan’s and monthly exports continued to decline month-on-month, and the market outlook is not optimistic.
Although exports to Japan increased by 4.8% year-on-year in May, the export volume continued to shrink, declining for two consecutive months. According to Japanese customs statistics, Japan’s share of imports from China has dropped to 61.8% in the first four months, and it is highly likely to fall below 60% within the year. Japan’s share of China’s export market has also dropped to 6.3%, and the outlook for the Japanese market is not optimistic. Cumulative exports to Japan from January to May were US$7.86 billion, a decrease of 5.9%, of which textiles and clothing decreased by 2.7% and 6.7% respectively. The total export volume of needle and woven clothing for major categories of commodities decreased by 2.3%, and the average unit price of exports fell by 4.7%.
4. The growth rate of exports of major categories of commodities has slowed down, and the export unit price has not stopped falling.
In May, textile exports increased slightly by 1.6%, while clothing exports fell by 0.3%. Among the major categories of commodities, yarns and finished products areThe growth rate was 8.5% and 2.9%, and the fabrics decreased by 0.7%; the export volume of knitted and woven clothing increased by 4.4%. The export prices of major categories of commodities have not yet resumed growth. The average export unit price of needle-woven garments fell by 4.6%, and the decline in yarn, fabrics and finished products has not stopped.
From January to May, textile and clothing exports fell by 0.3% and 3.2% respectively, and the decline further narrowed. Among textiles, fabrics increased by 1.5%, while yarns and finished products still declined; the total export volume of needle-woven garments fell slightly by 0.4%, and the export unit price fell by 3.1%.
5. Guangdong’s exports turned downward that month, and key provinces exerted a positive influence on overall exports.
In May, exports of 17 provinces (municipalities and districts) across the country achieved growth. Among the key export provinces and regions in the east, Shandong grew faster, with an increase of 18%; Guangdong, which had grown rapidly in the first two months, reversed, with exports falling by 4% that month.
From January to May, there were still only 12 provinces and cities that achieved cumulative growth in exports across the country, mostly concentrated in the eastern and central regions. Among them, the key provinces of Guangdong, Fujian and Shandong maintained growth, forming a positive impetus for overall export growth.
6. The decline in textile imports narrowed, and clothing imports resumed growth.
In May, the decline in textiles narrowed to 11.2%, and clothing achieved a growth of 17.4%. The two together pushed the overall decline in textiles and clothing imports to narrow. In textiles, yarns, fabrics and finished products all decreased, by 16.8%, 9.2% and 2% respectively; the total import volume of needlework and woven clothing in clothing increased by 15.3%, and the import unit price increased by 3.1%.
From January to May, the cumulative import of textiles fell by 16.3%. The decline in imports of various major categories of commodities is inversely proportional to the degree of processing of the goods. The higher the degree of processing, the smaller the decline. The declines in yarn, fabrics and finished products were 23%, 12.5% and 6.6% respectively. The import volume and price of cotton yarn fell by 18.9% and 9.6% respectively. The cumulative import of clothing increased by 4.8%, of which the import volume of needle-woven clothing increased by 6.3%, and the import unit price fell by 1.8%.
7. Cotton imports have picked up slightly, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened.
Cotton imports are gradually showing signs of recovery. In May, 79,000 tons were imported. The import volume continued to expand compared with April, with a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.7%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 359,000 tons, a decrease of 53.6%, and the average unit price of imports decreased by 1.7%.
In May, the cotton reserve rotation was officially launched, and companies were actively bidding and the transaction rate was high. However, due to the long arrival time, a temporary shortage of available resources in the market, good textile demand and other factors, the domestic cotton spot price this month was stable. There was a moderate rise, and Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded in shock. The monthly average price of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex3128B) was 12,511 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 494 yuan/ton, or 4.11%; it was a year-on-year decrease of 856 yuan/ton, or 6.41%. At the end of the month, it was 12,613 yuan/ton, an increase of 241 yuan/ton from the end of last month.
International cotton prices have increased due to improved economic data in the United States, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened. In May, the increase in international cotton prices was lower than that in China. The average monthly price of China’s imported cotton price index FCIndexM was 70.96 cents/pound, an increase of 0.62 cents from the previous month. At the end of the month, May 31, it was 73.20 cents/pound, up 0.82 cents from the end of April. The 1% tariff discount was RMB 12,094/ton, which was lower than the Chinese cotton price index of 519 yuan/ton in the same period, and the price difference widened compared with the same period last month. 216 yuan. (The above two paragraphs are excerpted from the website of China Cotton Association)
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